BTC / ETH (D1)
Bitcoin is down 5.34% in the past seven days and stands at the $23,344 level. Ethereum meanwhile is at the $1,625 level and also fell by 4.05% during the same period. We observe that despite this decline, BTC, ETH and cryptocurrencies as a whole are showing a certain resilience and remain at elevated levels, particularly in the face of the rise in the US Dollar, and the USDIndex which is at 104.76, having breached 105.00 last week.
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Last Friday, Core US CPE , which represents household spending and is considered the benchmark for inflation, recorded a surprise rise (0.6% versus 0.4%); this figure could therefore have a strong influence on the Federal Reserve‘s future monetary policy decisions.
Although, BTC and ETH , which are considered so-called risky assets, have limited the damage against other financial instruments, this phenomenon is rather unexpected given that the markets are taking into account the growing risk of seeing the Fed return to bigger rate hikes. It should be noted that the minutes of the last Fed meeting released on Wednesday revealed that some FOMC members favored a 0.5% rate hike, although the US Central Bank ultimately decided to slow the rate hike to 0.25%. Market players anticipate a 75.3% probability that the US Central Bank (Fed) will raise its rates by 0.25% on March 22, and see a 24.7% probability that it will raise its rates by 0.50% at the next meeting.
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However, it is important to keep in mind that we are witnessing a real upward explosion in the 2-year yield in the United States, and a progression of the 6-month yield above 5%, a phenomenon that has not happened since 2007. Also the inversion of the curve between the 10-year rate and the 2-year rate, which generally anticipates a coming recession, remains significant.
It is therefore necessary to remain extremely cautious and attentive to the smallest data that could influence the world of cryptos.
Technical Analysis BTC (D1)
BTC is currently at $23,344 above its cloud, between its KIJUN (Lv) and its Tenkan (Lj); the Lagging Span (Lb) is above the cloud and its peers clearly signifying a momentum of hesitation. The price could reach $ 23,555 and if this is broken, it could then reach resistance at level of $23,931. Conversely, if the price goes down again, it could move to reach $22,756.
Technical Analysis ETH (D1)
ETH is currently at the $1,625 level above its cloud, between its KIJUN (Lv) and its Tenkan (Lj); the Lagging Span (Lb) is above the cloud and at the level of its peers, clearly signifying a momentum of hesitation. The price could reach $1,682 and if this is broken, it could then reach the resistance at the $1,714 level. Conversely, if the price starts to fall again, $1,500 could be breached.
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Kader Djellouli
Market Analyst
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