US Payrolls on Friday were a near bullseye, with a 236k rise in March after -17k in revisions, though there was a skewing of weakness toward the goods sector. We saw the expected 0.3% hourly earnings rise that left a 4.2% y/y gain. The jobless rate fell to 3.50% from 3.57%, leaving the rate still above the 54-year low of 3.43% in January, with hefty gains of 577k for civilian employment and 480k for the labour force, while the labour force participation rate rose to a new a 3-year high of 62.6% from a prior high of 62.5%. However, there was a further drop in the workweek to 34.4 in March that fueled a -0.1% drop in the hours-worked index after small downward revisions. Overall, it raises expectations of a 25 bp hike from the Fed on May 3rd.
Overnight: Japan – March consumer confidence index 33.9 vs 31.1 prior
FX – USDIndex slipped under 101.50 on Friday and remains below 102.00 today at 101.85. EUR remains at 1.0900 today, having spiked down to 1.0875 on the NFP data. JPY breached 132.00 on Friday and holds 132.60 ahead of Gov. Ueda. Sterling’s decline from the key 1.2500 tests 1.2400 today. Stocks – US markets, closed mixed led by tech stocks on Thursday (+0.76% to -0.03%) #US500 closed at 4105 – US500 FUTS touched 4145 on Friday but are lower today at 4127. Q1 Earnings Season kicks off with the big Wall Street Banks this week. Commodities – USOil – Futures hold the key $80.00 and even breached $81.00 briefly earlier following the OPEC production cut last weekend. Gold – broke below the vital $2000, testing into support at $1987, before recovering to $1995. Cryptocurrencies – BTC slipped to $27.7k, recovered the key $28k and tests $28.4k today.Today – Most trading Centres remain closed for Easter Monday, Speeches from new BOJ Governor Ueda, & Fed’s Williams.
Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDJPY (+0.49%). A 3-day rally from under 131.00 continues testing 132.75 resistance today. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 62.00 & rising, H1 ATR 0.191, Daily ATR 1.310.
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Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
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