Bank jitters continue to ease lifting sentiment & Asian markets despite US stocks closing in the red. The USD eased another 0.3% and Yields gained with the 2-yr regaining 4%. Alibaba surged 14.3% in US trading and was up 16.3% at one point in Hong Kong after it announced it will split into 6 separate entities. Other Chinese tech companies (Tencent & JD.com)) are stronger. The YEN continues it’s volatile week as year end looms, AUD is lower on weaker Inflation, European & US Futures are higher. US Consumer Confidence was better than expected, the Fed’s Barr called SVB “not well managed” and that the $142 billion of withdrawals in first week of March represented 81% of 2022 deposits.
Overnight: AUD CPI missed (6.8% vs. 7.2% & 7.4%) and adds to prospects of RBA pausing rate hikes at next week’s meeting. German GfK Consumer Climate in-line (-29.5% vs -29.5% & -30.6%).
FX – USDIndex drifted 0.3% lower yesterday to test 102.00 before a bounce to 102.25. EUR rallied from 1.0800 to 1.0850 now. JPY continued its volatile week back to 132.00 now after lows of 130.40 yesterday, Sterling rallied over 1.2300 to 1.2340 and holds at 1.2325 now. Stocks – US markets lower (-0.12% to -0.45%) Major movers outside the Chinese tech stocks were OXY +4.29% & LYFT -7.6%. US500 –0.16% (-6.26) to 3971, US500 FUTS +0.37% higher at 4026 now. Commodities – USOil – Futures recovery continued again yesterday from $70.00 to hold over $73.00 and test $74.00. EIA Inventories today. Gold – dipped to $1950 once again, rallied to $1975 and trades at $1960 now. Cryptocurrencies – BTC has recovered to $28k today after testing $26.5k again. SBF faces new SEC charges that he tried to bribe Chinese officials with a $40 million payment.Today – US House Financial Services Committee re. SIVB, Speeches from Fed’s Barr, BoE’s Mann, ECB’s Schnabel.
Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDJPY (+0.79%). Volatility continues. Tested down to 130.40 after weak inflation yesterday, testing 132.00 today. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 71, OB & rising, H1 ATR 0.216, Daily ATR 1.910.
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Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
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