Events to Look Out For Next Week

Welcome to our weekly agenda, our briefing of all the key financial events globally.

With the ongoing firmness in inflation globally and the more hawkish central bank outlooks, the bearish impacts are likely to continue next week for stock market. The week is packed with PMIs from Germany, Europe, UK and US, while the RBNZ Rate decision and Canadian Inflation are in the spotlight.

Tuesday – 21 February 2023

Markit PMIs (EUR, GMT 08:30-09:00) – The preliminary Eurozone Composite February PMI is expected to have grow to 50.2 from 50.3, given a fall in Services sector in the Eurozone. Markit PMIs (GBP, GMT 09:30) – The preliminary February Services and Manufacturing PMI in the UK are expected at contraction at 48.3 and 46.8 respectively. Consumer Price Index and Retail Sales (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Canadian inflation is expected to grow for January on a monthly basis to 0.7% m/m from -0.6% m/m, with core contracting at -0.4% m/m from -0.6% m/m. Retail Sales are anticipated to increase to 0.5% m/m for December. Meanwhile, the BoC announced a cautious pause to its rate hikes at its most recent meeting on January 25, hence these data could give the BoC some further breathing room as the impacts of the prior tightenings are assessed. Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:45) – The preliminary Manufacturing PMI for February is expected to have declined further in contraction at 46.8 from 46.9 while Services PMI is expected to 46.6 from 46.8.

Wednesday – 22 February 2023

Wage Price Index (AUD, GMT 00:30) – Australian wages growth expected to ease to 0.7% frm 1% for Q4. This could provide direction for the RBA as rising number could support further hawkish stance from the bank. Rate Statement & Interest Rate Decision (NZD, GMT 01:00-02:00) – As inflation data remains at 31-year high at 7.2% y/y, RBNZ could scale down its tightening policy only slightly with a 50 bps interest rate hike to 4.75% inflation. The RBNZ has already raised rates by a total of 400 bps since October 2021 and at least 500 is expected, with a peak of 5.25% or higher. IFO Business Climate, Assessment & Expectations (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The German IFO Business Climate is forecasted to rise to 89.3 in February down from 90.2, with Business expectations also a bit more pessimist, at 84.7 from 86.4 FOMC Minutes (USD, GMT 19:00) – The FOMC minutes should provide guidance on the pace for further aggressive rate hikes to quell still very elevated inflation rates.

Thursday – 23 February 2023

Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 13:30) – The Q4 GDP growth should show a boost to 3.0% from 2.9%, with boosts of $11 bln for nonresidential investment, $5 bln for residential investment, and $1 bln for government purchases, but a trimmings of -$4 bln for both consumption and wholesale inventories, -$2 bln for factory inventories, and -$1 bln for net exports. The revised data will still depict a quarter with a hefty inventory build, despite a big further decline in imports, leaving little room for inventories to add further to growth in 2023.

Friday – 24 February 2023