A blockbuster NFP on Friday (571k new jobs vs 185k) & strong Services PMI (55.2 vs 50.5) has lifted the Dollar and Yields, sinking Stocks and Gold (the 3 mth Gold rally is over). YEN is weakest this morning with key “Dove” Amamiya (current deputy) a possible to take the reins at BOJ after Kuroda. The JPY is weakest & AUD strongest. USDTRY hit 18.85 following the fatal Earthquake.
The USD Index continued to rally from 8-mth lows on Thursday at 100.65 to breach 103.00 today – Markets expecting a continued Hawkish tones from FedSpeak this week (Powell Tuesday) and 25 bp hikes in March and May. EUR – sank below 1.0800 after posting 10-mth highs (and many Bank’s Q1 target) over 1.1000 on Thursday. Back to 1.0785 now. JPY – Rallied to test 132.40 earlier, following the BOJ rumours before cooling to 131.60 GBP – Sterling weakened again to 1.2025 on Friday as the UK100 hit a new all-time high on the weaker Pound. Inching higher today at 1.2060. Stocks – The US markets sank on Friday (-1.59% to -0.38%) US500 –1.04%, (-43.28) 4136, holding the key 4100 and gaining +1.6% for the week. (NASDAQ +3.3%) US500 FUTS trade softer at 4128. F -7.61%, AMZN -8.43%, APPL +2.44%. Goldman Sachs has raised their target for the S&P500 to 4000 in 3 months (from 3600). USOil – Futures -3.28% on Friday to close at $73.39 from close to $78.00. Back to $73.85 now. Gold – Tanked into $1860 on Friday before recovering to key resistance at $1880 now. BTC – Dropped from $23.7k highs ahead of NFP on Friday to $22.7k today.Today – EZ Retail Sales, Speeches from BoE’s Mann & Pill.
Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.73%). Rallied a whole big number from under 90.50 on Friday to 91.50 today. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising. RSI 53.76 & neutral, H1 ATR 0.221, Daily ATR 1.257.
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Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
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