The peace after the storm? After a Thunderous week, will the week ahead bring some sort of stability into the markets? With the ECB, BOE, and Fed out of the way for now, next week the RBA will be the only one reporting. The earnings reports and central bankers speeches are expected to dominate, with the European Commission Economic Growth Forecasts and Canadian labour data also a focal point.
Monday – 06 February 2023
Markit PMIs (GBP, GMT 09:30) – January’s construction PMI in the UK are expected slightly higher but still in contraction at 49.6 from 48.8.
Ivey PMI (CAD, GMT 15:00) – A survey of purchasing managers, the Canada Ivey PMI Index provides an overview of the state of business conditions in the country.
Tuesday – 07 February 2023
Interest Rate Decision & Statement (AUD, GMT 03:30) – Australia inflation hit a 32 year high in the last quarter of 2022. CPI jumped to 7.8% y/y, exceeding the 7.6% estimate. It was still a tad below the RBA’s own forecast of 8%, but while inflation likely has peaked as global energy prices are far off the highs seen earlier in 2022, the headline rate remains far too high. Hence another 25 bp rate hike is expected from the RBA on February 7.
BOE Ramsden and Pill Speeches (GBP, GMT 09:00 & 10:15)
FED Chair Powell Speech (USD, GMT 17:00)
BOC Governor Macklem Speech (CAD, GMT 17:30)
Wednesday – 08 February 2023
FOMC Member Williams Speech (USD, GMT 14:15)
Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday – 09 February 2023
UK Inflation Report Hearings (GBP, GMT 09:45) – The BOE Governor and several MPC members testify on inflation and the economic outlook before Parliament’s Treasury Committee.
EU Economic Forecasts (EUR, GMT 10:00) – This report includes economic forecasts for EU member states over the next 2 years, and covers about 180 variables.
Friday – 10 February 2023
Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 07:00) – GDP for Q4 is expected to ease at 0.4% y/y from 1.9% y/y. The new forecasts contained in the updated Monetary Policy Report suggest that the economic downturn will be shorter and shallower than predicted in November. The estimates still show a decline of almost 1% in gross domestic product across five quarters, and activity is set to decline by around 0.5% this year and 0.25% in 2024. Back in November, the projections predicted a -1% contraction this year and next.
Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canada’s unemployment is anticipated higher in January to 5.2% from 5.0%. In December, Canada’s employment rose 104k, while for January it is expected to be seen at just 8K, something that could hint a potential pause of further tightening from BOC. As the bank stated last time “if economic developments evolve broadly in line with the MPR outlook, the Governing Council expects to hold the policy rate at its current level while it assesses the impact of the cumulative interest rate increases”.
Prelim. Michigan Consumer Sentiment (USD, GMT 15:00) – US consumer sentiment edged up to 64.9 in the final January print (was 64.6 preliminary), having risen from the 59.7 in December and the 56.8 in November. The figure was the best since April’s 65.2, while November’s is the lowest since July. The record low of 50.0 was hit in June.
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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
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